“We cannot afford to fail in Katowice”

Impactful, possibly accusatory words of warning from the UN Secretary General António Gutierrez, with harrowing implications for the world. Uttered during his speech on the 3rd of December, these words have set the tone for COP24 (Conference of the Parties), crucial climate talks that began on Monday in Katowice, Poland. His speech approached politically unpalatable topics head-on and encouraged Parties to do the same, by operationalising the Paris Agreement of 2015. He emphasised that the majority of emitters most responsible for greenhouse gas pollution are behind in their efforts to meet pledges promised under the Agreement, and that current NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) will lead, as shown by IPCC climate models, to global warming of 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Various reports support a pessimistic outlook on the future effects of climate change if commitments are not revised upwards to reflect more ambitious goals and more urgent needs, such as the IPCC’s October Special Report and the WWF Living Planet Report.

The IPCC Report is split into scientific projections for the progression of climate change up to 1.5 and 2.0 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, and recommendations of measures to combat climate challenges at these upper limits. An astounding example of the former is that if emissions fail to reach their peak and do not start to fall before 2030, we will incur repercussions in ecosystem and species losses of up to 18% (in the case of insects at 2.0 of warming), increased heat-related mortality factors including droughts, extreme weather, poor harvests, and rising sea-levels (unavoidable until beyond 2100 due emissions already released).

“We’re stealing from the future” – David Bergman, ecodesigner and author.

Furthermore, the Report shows that human actions have already caused 1.0 degree of global warming above pre-industrial levels (between 1720-1800), explaining the higher frequency of natural disasters today and promising further environmental disruption if warming is not limited to 0.5 degrees more. The Report notes that such a goal would necessitate a 45% reduction in emissions from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. This claim has frightened many global leaders by its ambition, as some of the biggest polluters are not currently hitting the targets of NDCs submitted in 2015.

With respect to measures of mitigating the effects of climate change, the Report includes every level of society: banking, justice, local civil authority, indigenous sectors in the necessary global response. The emphasis on inclusivity in this year’s COP and the introduction of the Talanoa Dialogue in the UNFCCC process echoes the words of Michael Moller, Director-General of the United Nations Office: “Every single human being on our severely stressed planet has to take responsibility”. D.3 of the Report says that adaptation can be conducive to sustainable development, thereby supporting the most vulnerable people in society and also creating an equal, environmentally conscientious future.

“The People have spoken”.

David Attenborough, natural historian and British broadcasting celebrity, also gave an impassioned speech, appealing for transparency in climate action and public inclusivity in the process. In order to promote this, the Facebook bot Actnow.bot has been launched, with the aim of providing free, accessible information about small individual climate actions. Instagram users can also have their say on climate change efforts by quoting the hashtag #TakeYourSeat, bringing the public into the conversation and connecting them directly with world leaders.

A well-known campaigner for the preservation of natural environments, Attenborough’s Blue Planet programme sparked international recognition of the plastic problem in the world’s oceans. Biodiversity has thenceforth become a polemical topic, the state of which was used as a standard in measuring the extent of climate change and the health of the Earth in the WWF Living Planet Report. The Report blames 75% of the animal extinctions since 1500 on human overexploitation or agricultural practises, and claims that 60% of biodiversity was lost between 1970 and 2014. Startling statistics, taken from the Living Planet Index, show that the most serious loss of biodiversity has been in the tropics, South and Central America having seen a staggering 89% reduction in their biodiverse regions.

In summary, many senior figures in the UNFCCC, reports from the most expert environmental research and conservation organisations, and the general public are making clear their views on climate change as COP24 unfolds. Needless to say the consensus is that current promises lack ambition, and do not coalesce to form a sustainable, far-sighted vision for 2030, 2050 and goals beyond. Leaders and all participants of COP24, the world is saying loud and clear:

We must do more.

Will Feakes